Potential geographical distribution of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China

Apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) is a major pest causing considerable economic losses of fruits in North America. During the development of international trade, apple maggot fly has become a threat to Chinese agriculture. In this study, CLIMEX and ArcGIS were used to predict the potential geographical distribution of apple maggot fly in China. The parameters used in CLIMEX for apple maggot fly were derived from ecological data and the present geographical distribution of apple maggot fly in North America. Then the potential distribution map in China was presented based on the adjusted values of these parameters. The results showed that apple maggot fly has a wide potential distribution area in China; 47.5% of 748 meteorological stations presented high or medium suitability of pest establishment. These high suitable stations are mainly located in northeast, southwest and northwest of China, such as Liaoning, Shandong, Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces. These areas are also the central regions of apple, pear and peach production in China. Two hundred and twenty-five stations (30.1%) in western and southern China, such as Tibet, Qinghai, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Taiwan, were unsuitable for establishment of apple maggot fly populations. In order to prevent the introduction of apple maggot fly in China, the present plant quarantine measures should be enhanced, especially in the areas with high suitability for the presence of apple maggot fly.